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Water FractalTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.1% | +3.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 64.0% | +7.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.1% | -5.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.6% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 70.6% | +13.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 46.6% | -1.9 |
| Fire Suited | 6.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.6% | -6.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.5% | -5.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.6% | +8.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Nico | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Floodward Sergeant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bubble Mage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ceasing Edict | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |